The newly signed ‘AUKUS’ alliance between Australia, the UK and the US can be seen as a reactionary response to the current state of global power, and particularly focuses upon the importance of the Indo-Pacific region. This essay will contend that the alliance signals a shifting balance of power, which has the potential to threaten a ‘new cold war’ through regional security dilemmas. It speaks to a longer historical process of the rise of China, which has become highly assertive, particularly in contested areas of the South China Sea. Furthermore the reinforcing of long-held anglospheric ties, can be seen to be furthering neo-realist assumptions about the international stage; through direct trilateral action which formally increases military-strategic-industrial collaboration between the three powers. Overall, the alliance can be viewed in the context of a rising China which in both soft and hard power terms threatens US hegemony. Therefore in a period of changing global polarities of power, the AUKUS alliance seeks to act as a lightning rod; to ground China’s growth through military curtails.
A new Cold War?
The AUKUS alliance is a strong indicator that the global balance of power (relative military power between states) is shifting significantly; to the sinosphere. China is fully committed to its growing role as regional military hegemon in the South Pacific, and rising world economic powerhouse. This new alliance seeks to directly challenge the dominance of the Indo-Pacific region by China, which it has come to enjoy since investing tremendously in its air & naval capabilities. Indeed the deal includes not just nuclear-powered submarines, but is extensive, with the UK national security adviser remarking it is “…perhaps the most significant capability collaboration in the world anywhere in the past six decades” (Wintour, 2021). The deal includes allowing the US and UK navies to utilise Australian ports, technological & intelligence collaborations and comes in the wider context of further military training activities with regional allies. Although not explicitly mentioned, the nature of the alliance implies a heavy concern among western allies, and the US in particular, to the threat a rising China brings to US hegemony, which has existed and expanded relatively comfortably over the last 30 years. In the American view, this hegemony has ensured stability in the region (politically and economically).
However, this perceived security dilemma could potentially lead to a regional arms race, in an attempt between both sides to cancel the increased threat from each other. This fundamentally pushes the source of power on the contemporary international stage into a bipolar order, with the stage set for a return of the military standoffs reminiscent of the last cold war. China sees the move as ‘ highly irresponsible’ and blames repeated patterns of western ‘cold war’ mentalities. This can be further supported by the fact that the US and UK are actively choosing to provide nuclear technology to a non-nuclear country. Although not weaponised, nuclear technology acts as a direct defensive deterrent and offers future potential to Australian proliferation, with the uranium for the motors enriched at 93-97% (qualifying as weapon-grade) (Zhu, 2021). This is not taken lightly as Australia could theoretically become only the sixth recognised state in possession of nuclear weapon technology, stretching the practical capabilities of the ‘Mutually Assured Destruction’ thesis. Overall it can be seen that the AUKUS alliance, although was in response to a perceived threat, has reacted in an equally aggressive manner which raises the military stakes in a highly volatile region. This has the potential to repeat the past, and even fall into the ancient past; a Thucydides Trap.
The Anglosphere return to neo-realism?
Additionally to the changing nature of polarity the AUKUS alliance has brought, it re-establishes old trends in both military pacts and neo-realist decision-making. Firstly the three partners have a long history of military cooperation, with the trio fighting beside each other in every major conflict of the 20th century. This precedent has been kept to, and sets a new tone for a new post-COVID international system. Indeed the Anglo states have taken a more unilateral approach to global security, circumventing both international institutional protocol and one of their oldest allies; France. This deal especially soured French relations with the trio, who already held a deal with Australia to manufacture the 12 submarines and who had begun a significant partnership with Australia in the Indo-Pacific, central to French foreign policy. However this can be seen to follow older trends such as the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence collaboration between English-speaking countries.
This direction of action can be seen as a resurgence of neo-realist decision-making at the international level, taking trilateral action to a global problem and thus working outside the now-norm of taking global solutions to global issues. Through the process of the creation of this alliance, the partners have re-asserted state superiority at the world stage; using the 2021 G7 conference as a chance to informally discuss some of the complexities of the alliance. Therefore, we can see Anglo action having significant consequences for the nature of the balance of power; returning to power-maximising motives in order to ensure regional stability in a highly strategic area, with particular re-establishment of Anglo alliances, which changes the make-up of the major balancing powers.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the AUKUS alliance proves highly important for exploring the current balance of power upon the global stage. The alliance fundamentally shifts the balance of power into a more bipolar scenario, leading the US to primarily face off against China with the potential to create future security dilemmas and arms races, which could be of major significance for the future of global power relations. Furthermore, the nature of balancing can be seen to be returning to an Anglo-led strategic alliance, that gives insight into the growth of post-COVID unilateral action, rather than through the usual institutional hoops. This is due in part to the resurgence of neo-realist thinking in western circles, which have started to prioritise the defence of US hegemony and a turn back to realist tactics of international relations. However, further analytical lenses could have been explored to more fully explain the AUKUS’ impact upon the balance of power, which would improve the quality of study.
Bibliography
Tewari, S. 2021 ‘Aukus: UK, US and Australia pact signals Asia-Pacific power shift’ BBC News, 16 September, viewed 16 November 2021,
<https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58540808> .
Wintour, P. 2021 ‘What is the Aukus alliance and what are its implications?’ The Guardian, 16 September, viewed 16 November 2021,
Zhu, M. 2021 ‘Aukus alliance: what is it, what does it have to do with China, and why is France angry?’ South China Morning Post, 10 October, viewed 16 November 2021,
Politica Carnivora 